Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting using Iteration Based Modified Grey Models

Authors

Faculty of Engineering, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

Abstract

Regarding to increase electric power demand consumption, identification of its change circumstances is an important issue in electric networks. From this point of view, short-term load forecasting is vital problem in technical and economic management of the power industry to ensure supply demand and network security. So far numerous methods with different accuracy have been proposed to model and forecast electric load in short-term. Most of them utilize large amounts of data and other parameters of the predictor variable. In this paper, grey model )GM(1,1)) and rolling grey model (RGM) can model and forecast time series by using low number of data and high accuracy improved. Fourier residual correction grey model (FGM) has been employed to increase the accuracy of proposed methods. In addition, the proposed methods performances have been compared with four other methods by applying them on Iran and New England networks. Several error definitions have been adopted as ability and accuracy criteria. Also, the sensitivity of the proposed methods to the number of required data and prediction step size has been investigated. Simulation results show high performance and accuracy of the proposed methods in the modeling and load forecasting.

Keywords

References

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TABRIZ JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING
Volume 48, Issue 3 - Serial Number 85
November 2018
Pages 1069-1081

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