مدل‌سازی اتفاقی مسأله بهره‌برداری ریزشبکه در حالت جزیره‌ای با درنظرگرفتن شاخص ریسک

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی برق و کامپیوتر - دانشگاه کردستان - سنندج

2 گروه مهندسی برق - دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد سنندج

چکیده

در این مقاله، مسأله بهره‌برداری یک ریزشبکه در حالت جزیره‌ای و با درنظرگرفتن عدم‌قطعیت مدل‌سازی شده‌است. به‌همین‌منظور، مسأله به‌صورت یک مسأله ریاضی اتفاقی (Stochastic) که مبتنی بر یک مجموعه سناریو احتمالی بوده، برای درنظرگرفتن عدم‌قطعیت بار مصرفی و منابع تولید توان تجدیدپذیر، مدل شده‌است. برای مدل‌کردن عدم‌قطعیت و کاهش اختلاف هزینه بهره‌برداری در بهترین و بدترین سناریو از روش ارزش در معرض خطر مشروط (CVaR) استفاده شده که ابزاری مناسب برای مدیریت ریسک مسأله است. بخشی از ظرفیت تولید ریزشبکه به‌عنوان رزرو در مدل ریاضی مسأله جهت پوشش کمبود تولید ریزشبکه به‌دلیل عدم‌قطعیت، خروج تجهیزات و جزیره‌ای‌بودن ریزشبکه، لحاظ شده‌است. درنهایت، نتایج بهره‌برداری ریزشبکه بررسی‌شده و یک تحلیل حساسیت برای مشاهده ارتباط هزینه ریزشبکه با برخی از پارامترهای مدل، انجام شده‌است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Stochastic Modeling of Micro-Grid Operation Problem in Standalone Mode Considering Risk Index

نویسندگان [English]

  • P. Sheikhahmadi 1
  • S. Bahramara 2
  • J. Moshtagh 1
1 Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
2 Department of Electrical Engineering, Sanandaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this paper, the operation problem of a micro-grid in standalone mode considering uncertainty is modeled. For this purpose, the problem is modeled as a stochastic mathematical problem based on a set of probabilistic scenarios for the consideration of the uncertainties of load and renewable power sources. To model uncertainties and reducing difference between the operation cost in the best and worst scenario, the value at risk (CVaR) as an appropriate tool for risk management is used. Some of the production capacity of micro-grid is considered in the mathematical model as a reserve in order to cover the shortage of micro-grid production due to uncertainty, equipment failure and no distribution network connection. Finally, the results of micro-grid operation have been analyzed and a sensitivity analysis is presented to observe the relationship between costs of the micro-grid with some parameters of the mathematical model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • renewable resources
  • micro-grid
  • uncertainty
  • demand side management
  • risk management
  • stochastic modeling

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